Arizona’s largest swing county prepares for a close presidential election

PHOENIX — Arizona’s last two elections, in 2020 and 2022, drew scrutiny from voters, political parties and candidates. This was especially true in Maricopa County, where “multiple candidates for major offices have refused to accept the results” of the election, said Bill Gates, a county supervisor.
“We are concerned about that but there’s not a lot we can do,” Gates told the Deseret News at the Maricopa County offices in downtown Phoenix last week.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won Arizona by less than 1% and beat his opponent, former President Donald Trump, in Maricopa County by 2%. The county is the fourth most populated in the U.S., and it is also a swing district with a fairly even number of Democratic, Republican and independent voters, said Gates.
After the 2020 election, Trump sued the state and then-Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, a Democrat who now serves as the state’s secretary of state. Neither the courts nor Maricopa County’s 2021 election audit found evidence of widespread fraud, but the election administrators in the county continue to face scrutiny.
Gates, a Republican, said he expects more contentious races in the upcoming 2024 election. The latest New York Times and Siena College poll suggests Trump maintains an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, 51% to 45%.
“We know that people who do not like how things have turned out are going to continue to spin up conspiracy theories,” Gates said, noting it is becoming increasingly common in American elections. “It’s wrong. It’s not sustainable.”
Last year, he revealed he and his family faced threats and attacks from those denying election results. He acknowledged that he is one of many Republicans to leave political life, willing or unwillingly, for not denying the results of the 2020 presidential election.
“It’s a shame I’ve been a Republican my whole life and one of the strengths of the Republican Party was we were a big tent party. You didn’t have to toe any particular ideological line on any issue,” said Gates. He listed general principles — like meritocracy, free market and individualism — that are shared by those in the GOP. “But now, we have seen a lot of people who are unwilling to repeat the lie that the 2020 election was stolen. Now, those people are being pushed out of the party.”
He said he hoped this trend would reverse for the sake of the Republican Party and future electoral successes. But, for now, Maricopa County is preparing the best it can to authenticate and deliver the results as quickly as possible.
Voters in Arizona have the option to cast their ballot early in person or via mail. Early voting began in the state last week. Arizona residents will also have 246 voting stations to choose from on Election Day.
As of Monday, all 1.9 million ballots had been shipped to Maricopa County voters, and roughly 62% of them had been received by voters, according to a social media update by County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican and an outspoken defender of the state’s electoral process. Earlier this year, he lost his primary to state Rep. Justin Heap.
For the first time since 2006, the county’s voters will have a two-page ballot with 87 contests, which is a slight logistical challenge. Taylor Kinnerup, the communications director at the Maricopa County Recorder’s office, told the Deseret News, “If you do plan to vote in person, just anticipate that it may take longer because it is such an extensive ballot.” She also advised voters to send their mail-in ballots early.
She said her office is readying to process ballots and verify signatures. “It’s an exciting start, and we’re looking forward to what could be a record turnout.”
After the 2020 and 2022 elections, the Maricopa County elections office increased security at their facilities — SWAT teams on roofs, snipers on adjacent buildings and a secure drone space — and also did more to enhance transparency, giving more than 90 public tours this year alone, and setting up a live stream of their office, Kinnerup said. The county has also invested about $9 million in new printers after printing issues at polling centers in 2022.
In 2020, Arizona took more than three weeks to certify election results and it took the state nearly a month in 2022. But Kinnerup disputed the claim that the Grand Canyon State, including Maricopa County, takes too long to count votes.
“We are actually faster than most counties,” she said. “The difference is, our votes come down to the wire. Our contests are separated by sometimes less than 300 votes.”
Arizona law is also particular on ballot processing. Mail-in ballots sent on Election Day are required to be counted. Gates said he anticipates anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 people dropping off their mail-in ballot on Nov. 5. These votes will prolong the counting process, which includes signature verification.
Gates anticipates that 95% of the total votes will be counted and reported by the Friday of election week. “But because our races are so close, the networks still may not be able to declare a winner until that following week,” he added.
“It’s not due to incompetence,” the supervisor said. “We will have this count and any recounts completed so that Arizona’s electoral votes will be counted in time for the Electoral College.” Certifications need to be submitted by Dec. 25.