London Playbook PM: Attack Bobby J day

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald in Birmingham. But first…
ACTUAL WAR NEWS: The Conservative conference continues to pale in significance to events in the Middle East — where it looks like (another) big escalation is coming.
From the White House: The U.S. believes Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel, in the wake of Israel’s ground incursion into Lebanon. A senior White House Official said in a statement to POLITICO that “we are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran.”
From Israel: Daniel Hagari, the IDF spokesperson, told journalists that Israel does “not yet detect an aerial threat launched from Iran at this time.” He added: “We have dealt with this type of threat before, and we will deal with it now as well.”
Back in the U.K: No word yet from No. 10 officials on whether Starmer has been on the phone to world leaders, as he was expected to be today.
Now read this: Israel “could get bogged down in a more prolonged and arduous invasion” of Lebanon than it’s aiming for, POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer writes in his latest dispatch from Tel Aviv.
— Robert Jenrick is facing fire from the other Tory leadership candidates over his claims about U.K. special forces.
— He put in a spirited performance on the conference main stage — and revealed a wild middle name for one of his daughters.
— James Cleverly faced his own grilling — and tried to pitch himself as Mr Consistency.
— All the other action from Tory conference, including the launch of Grant Shapps’ Conservatives Together.
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GET BOBBY: Tory leadership frontrunner Robert Jenrick is coming under direct fire from his rivals — as the party’s conference got a touch spicy on its penultimate day.
Still rumbling on … The row over Jenrick’s video on X claiming that U.K. special forces are “killing rather than capturing terrorists because our lawyers tell us that if they’re caught, the European Court will set them free.” Which is obviously quite the claim.
Shots fired: Tom Tugendhat went over the top in response to Jenrick’s comments about the SAS, telling Sebastian Payne at an Onward event this afternoon that there was “no truth” to Jenrick’s claim and that he had showed a “fundamental misunderstanding” of military command. He went for Jenrick again at a Centre for Policy Studies fringe shortly afterward — and told the BBC that he is “angry.”
Miaow: “Please don’t comment on military matters you know nothing about,” Tugendhat told the CPS. Whatever happened to the whole yellow card thing?
Shots fired II: “I have never accused British armed forces of killing anyone. if you are going to make that accusation you have to back it up,” Tugendhat’s fellow contender James Cleverly told Christopher Hope as he faced questions on the main stage today, directly after Jenrick.
On that point: Jenrick was unable to provide evidence to directly back up his claim in a Today program grilling this morning — arguing that he can’t “elaborate on particular cases”. Instead, he insisted he was simply making the same point former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace made here — when Wallace said human rights laws are thwarting efforts to stop terrorists and that they are “more often than not forced into taking lethal action than actually raiding and detaining.” 
Also piling in: “It’s not true in the terms of special forces. I have seen no evidence at all as defense secretary of that happening,” former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps (chairing Cleverly’s campaign, remember) told the BBC … and former AG Dominic Grieve has certainly been tweeting.
Defending himself: In his main stage grilling, Jenrick doubled down again — arguing that human rights laws would make it “difficult” for British forces to “conduct a similar operation to the one that the United States did to kill or capture Osama bin Laden.”
Also defending Jenrick: Dominic Cummings is describing the backlash to Jenrick’s comments as “garbage from far left NPCs.” (That’s non-player characters to those of you who aren’t terminally online.)
Reminder: Bobby J, as we must now all call him, has closed the gap with Kemi Badenoch among the Tory grassroots to just four points as per YouGov’s overnight survey of members for Sky News … which may explain why the candidates are so keen to stretch this row as far as they can.
ALSO ON THE MAIN STAGE: Repetition was the order of the day — as both Cleverly and Jenrick used their hour of questions from Chris Hope, and then Chris Hope but as the voice of Tory members, to repeat key campaigning lines we’ve all heard several times before. Jenrick was up first.
He opened with … a decent gag. “I’ve got three young girls, and they have all been reading the papers, watching the news — and one of them said to me the other day: ‘Can we get free tickets to Taylor Swift?’” His follow-up about the freebies at conference being so good even Starmer could show up was a bit lazier.
Wait, really? Jenrick then volunteered this gem: he gave one of his daughters the middle name “Thatcher.” No comment. 
His big pitch: “I always lived in hope that we could have a Conservative leader who was both right-wing and competent. That’s what I would aspire to be. I think that’s what you all want,” Jenrick told the crowd.
Unlike the other candidates: Jenrick brought up the ECHR himself and repeated his membership-aimed message: “It’s leave or remain.”
Otherwise: Jenrick refused to choose between Kamala Harris or Donald Trump when put on the spot … said Michael Gove would fit in on BBC show the Traitors (best of luck with the new Spectator regime) … and said he’d oppose any assisted dying bill.
And then it was on to Cleverly … who tried to set himself apart from his rivals as the most experienced figure in the race — and the only one who played a key role in winning the 2019 election. 
Another yellow card? “With me you know what you get and what I was. What I am and what I will be is consistent,” he said. In case that dig at Tory centrist-turned-right-winger Jenrick was too subtle, he added: “I don’t chop and change. I don’t U-turn. I don’t flip flop.” 
Two more digs at Bobby J: “I think it was Margaret Thatcher who said you don’t need to wear a T-shirt to show what your principles are,” Cleverly said in response to being asked if he’d wear a Jenrick-style “Hamas are terrorists” t-shirt … and he said he was a Brexiteer before it was cool … unlike some.
Clevs run-through: He also backed replacing the BBC license fee with a subscription model … backed shortening the leadership contest (Jenrick did the same) … and said he doesn’t believe in all-women shortlists.
At the ConHome fringe: Organizers announced the arrival of star guest Cleverly and the walk-on music and applause began … only for no-one to walk on because as Cleverly was still on his way from the main stage. The cycle repeated more than once. “This is terrible,” a very senior broadcast journalist was overheard remarking. To be fair, these things are a nightmare to organize.
MEANWHILE ON PLANET KEMI: Badenoch has gone under the radar so far today — but that’s about to change. She’s facing her former boss, Spectator editor Fraser Nelson in a Q&A as Playbook PM hits your inbox. The queues to get in were huge. Will she join in with the hits on Jenrick … and might she have anything to say about her one-time mentor Michael Gove who replaces Nelson in the Speccy editor’s chair from next week?
SARDINES TOGETHER: More than 100 people crammed together with barely room to breathe for the launch of Grant Shapps’ aptly named Conservatives Together. Unfortunately for the branding, some Tories were left … not together as a queue of dozens snaked outside the Baldwin Room. They were promised an online version. The low black ceiling, dim lighting and soaring temperatures meant minds were focused on not passing out. It was standing room only (as they’d removed all the chairs). 
Shapps’ the spirit: Freed from the burden of managing the nation’s defenses, spreadsheet expert Shapps instead turned his attention to rebuilding the party’s campaigning machine. “I received an enormous amount of response, and that is what made us think … we ought to pull that together and put it into reports,” he said after sending out a mass email to fellow defeated MPs and candidates urging them not to be disheartened. He admitted the name had taken some inspiration from Labour Together — there’s nothing like originality. 
Long walk to Downing Street: Alongside the sweaty launch was a 30-page blue (natch) report laying out eight areas where the Tories struggled in the election campaign. They make tough reading for whoever becomes the next leader: CCHQ was disconnected from local campaigns … the party’s arguments were not well framed … niche communities weren’t engaged with … age was (unsurprisingly) a huge problem … the rural vote has altered … social media wasn’t mastered … candidates were selected too late … and some associations felt “hollowed out.” Eep. Full report here. 
Watching from London: “Number 9 seems to be missing: ‘We didn’t deliver our promises,’” a Labour official quipped. “They have clearly learnt nothing.”
Standing apart: Nonetheless, Shapps’ new group were keen to stress their independence from the main party and that they are definitely not trying to be a think tank. Instead, the focus is said to be wholly on campaigning and assisting candidates of the future. “We want to be re-attracting the voters who defected or who stayed at home, but also bringing the message of the Conservative Party to completely new voters,” said fellow launcher, Tory peer Ross Kempsell. Who, interestingly enough, is running Boris Johnson’s comms operation.
Neither confirming nor denying: The ex-defense secretary was asked about reports (including in this morning’s Playbook) he’s keen to return as an MP, which he didn’t rule out. “I am really enjoying having the freedom, literally, to be able to leave my house when I want to,” he said after serving as defense secretary. “Although I love public service and I may come back at some point, I’m not itching to get back in the door.” Watch this space for any by-election selections.
MISS U BORIS: Ben Houchen, the Tees Valley mayor, told a ConservativeHome event that he didn’t know of “any politician in my time in politics that has what Boris Johnson has.” He recalled that when Johnson turned up to help campaign while he was mayor of London he was “mobbed” on the high street, as if One Direction had just turned up.
THE ONE WE’RE ALL HANGING ON FOR: Jacob Rees-Mogg will reveal his preference for leader once it’s down to the last two, he told a live recording of the Telegraph’s Daily T podcast. He’ll do that on his GB News show, obvs.
No soggy bottoms here: Rees-Mogg also revealed that he once declined to go on Celebrity Bake Off.
CROSSING THE FLOOR: Robert Buckland, the former justice secretary, said he’ll be campaigning for Kamala Harris in the U.S. election. Writing for the House Magazine, he said the world needs to avoid the “chaos” of a second Trump presidency.
PERILS OF RUNNING A NEWSPAPER: The sudoku was wrong in today’s Jenrick Post “newspaper,” Times Radio’s Ollie Cole noticed. Leave it to the pros, lads.
MERCH NEWS: Tom Tugendhat brought out new merch today — including “I’m a Tom Tugend-hat” caps. Watch the slightly embarrassed leader handing out the swag here.
SPOTTED: Tugendhat taking time out from the whole leadership race thing for a haircut in the exhibition hall. To be clear, it was from a barber stall set up for that purpose — not a beleaguered member of his campaign team
RELIVE CONFERENCE SO FAR: POLITICO’s Noah Keate has a rip-roaring run-through of the seven wildest moments from Birmingham so far. The night is still young.
WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN BIRMINGHAM TONIGHT: Ex-1922 committee Chair Graham Brady launches his book (6 p.m.) … and parties are hosted by the Conservative Environment Network (6 p.m.) … Conservative Friends of Ukraine (6 p.m.) … LGBT+ Tories (6 p.m.) … Irish Embassy (6 p.m.) … More in Common with Shadow Health Secretary Victoria Atkins (6 p.m.) … UK Music/TikTok with Peter Andre (7.30 p.m.) … Bloomberg for diplomats (8.30 p.m.) … inHouse late lounge (10 p.m.).
And of course: The Spectator has its conference closing reception from 10 p.m, with the usual highly exclusive guest list (sobs) and promises of champagne. Incoming editor Michael Gove will be there.
CHINESE NEW YEAR: Rachel Reeves is planning to visit China early next year, Sky’s Mark Kleinman revealed. He hears the Treasury “is in detailed discussions with Chinese counterparts about holding a U.K.-China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) as early as January.”
TOP MANDARIN RACE: Ofcom boss Melanie Dawes didn’t rule out having a run at the cabinet secretary job after Simon Case confirmed his long-trailed departure from the top civil service role. Speaking at the Times Tech Summit, Dawes said she was “at the moment, absolutely 100 percent focused on Ofcom.” Asked if she would turn the job down if offered, Dawes said: “Honestly, that’s not where I’m focusing my effort right now. I’m focusing my effort on Ofcom.” That’s not quite a “no.”
INDYREF POO: New Scottish Tories boss Russell Findlay plans for his party to boycott any Holyrood debates on independence, he told journalists. The Telegraph and Herald have write-ups.
ACROSS THE POND: Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz faces off against Republican VP pick JD Vance tonight in what could be the final campaign debate. The pair will meet in New York.
Topics for discussion: While the duo have no idea about the questions, they’ll be able to predict some attack points. Walz’s record as governor of Minnesota, Vance’s past negative comments about Trump as well as Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ changing policy positions since her 2019 presidential run might all be featured. The drama gets started at 2 a.m. U.K. time on CBS for the real hardcore fans — POLITICO’s D.C. Playbook colleagues have a rundown.
Elsewhere in America: Tens of thousands of dockworkers have gone on strike in their first shutdown in almost 50 years. It threatens significant trade and economic disruption. More from the BBC.
IN GERMANY: A woman was arrested on suspicion of passing information to Beijing’s secret service through an agent working for a far-right lawmaker in the European Parliament. My colleague Csongor Körömi has the details.
IN FRANCE: Prime Minister Michael Barnier said France will need two years more than expected to bring its deficit in line with EU rules in his first major policy address — and he’s pointing to spending cuts and higher taxes on the biggest corporations to try to sort things out. My colleague Giorgio Leali has more.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS:  BBC News at Six focuses on the Middle East … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) broadcasts from Lebanon on the Middle East crisis with correspondents in Israel and Washington, D.C.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former U.K. National Security Adviser Mark Lyall-Grant (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt … former Tory Leader Iain Duncan Smith … Tory MP Harriett Baldwin … the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe and commentator Tim Montgomerie (both 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps (5.30 p.m.).
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former senior Israeli intelligence officer Eyal Pinko (5.30 p.m.) … Washington Institute Managing Director Michael Singh (6.30 p.m.).
The Political Fourcast (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Education Secretary Gillian Keegan … former Environment Secretary Thérèse Coffey.
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Tory leadership contender Tom Tugendhat … Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell.
Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Iain Duncan Smith … Penny Mordaunt … former Tory MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Labour and Lib Dem MP Luciana Berger.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Lebanon’s Ambassador to the U.K. Rami Mortada and former Israel Defense Forces commander Jonathan Conricus (both 6 p.m.) … former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi (6.40 p.m.).
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Shadow Foreign Office Minister Alicia Kearns … former Tory adviser James Starkie … Tim Montgomerie.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Former Foreign Office Minister Alistair Burt … Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney … APCO Worldwide’s Jo Tanner … journalist Rachel Shabi.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Tory MPs Tom Pursglove, Miriam Cates and Alexander Stafford.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Tory leadership contender Robert Jenrick … Tom Pursglove … Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein … former Tory MP Robert Halfon.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MPs Chloe Smith and Julie Kirkbride … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Journalist Christina Patterson and broadcaster Theo Usherwood.
BREXIT BILATS: Keir Starmer jets off to Brussels for some bilat action with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
TORY CONFERENCE: Concludes with speeches from each candidate. And then that’s conference season for another year.
NEW GIG: ITV News’ Jack Abbey is moving from being the broadcaster’s Westminster producer to the business and economics beat. Good timing for the budget.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: The U.K. Supreme Court opened its doors for the first time on this day in 2009. Barrister Alexander Horne has a really nice piece marking the Supreme Court anniversary in the Spectator … and making the argument that little of significance has really changed.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporters Noah Keate and Mason Boycott-Owen and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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